1. Summary
We believe that $LIT, the native token of Lighter, is currently undervalued across both relative and absolute valuation metrics.
$LIT was listed on December 30, 2025.
At the time of writing, it is trading at $2.23, with a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of $2.23B and a market capitalization of approximately $558M.
Based on 30-day metrics from DefiLlama, ReboundX conducted a comparative analysis of Lighter against other leading Perp DEXs in the same category—Hyperliquid and Aster.
As a result, we conclude that $LIT is trading at a clear discount across key valuation metrics, including trading volume, revenue, and open interest.
2. Protocol Metrics Comparison (30D)
Lighter
- TVL: $1.45B
- Fees: $8.76M
- Revenue: $8.76M
- Perp Volume: $200.08B
- Open Interest: $1.40B
- FDV: $2.23B
- Market Cap: $558M
Hyperliquid
- TVL: $4.15B
- Fees: $68.77M
- Revenue: $60.63M
- Perp Volume: $169.31B
- Open Interest: $7.50B
- FDV: $25.03B
- Market Cap: $7.84B
Aster
- TVL: $1.24B
- Fees: $36.23M
- Perp Volume: $177.47B
- Open Interest: $2.43B
- FDV: $6.01B
- Market Cap: $1.87B
All metrics are based on DefiLlama 30-day data.
*Note: Aster revenue data is not clearly disclosed on DefiLlama.*
3. Relative Valuation Analysis
(1) FDV vs. Perp Volume
Lighter
• Perp Volume: $200.08B
• FDV: $2.23B
Hyperliquid
• Perp Volume: $169.31B
• FDV: $25.03B
Aster
• Perp Volume: $177.47B
• FDV: $6.01B
- Lighter’s FDV is approximately 11.2x lower than Hyperliquid's
- Lighter’s FDV is approximately 2.7x lower than Aster's
Despite posting comparable or higher trading volumes than peer Perp DEXs, Lighter is valued at the lowest FDV among the three.
(2) FDV vs. Revenue
- Lighter Revenue: $8.76M
- Hyperliquid Revenue: $60.63M
On a revenue-adjusted basis, Lighter is trading at a lower FDV-to-Revenue multiple compared to Hyperliquid.
Applying the same revenue multiple would imply a fair FDV for Lighter of approximately $3.5B or higher.
(3) FDV vs. Open Interest (OI)
Lighter
• OI: $1.40B
• FDV: $2.23B
Hyperliquid
• OI: $7.50B
• FDV: $25.03B
Aster
• OI: $2.43B
• FDV: $6.01B
Lighter shows the lowest valuation relative to OI
- Applying Hyperliquid’s OI multiple → Implied FDV ≈ $4.5B
- Applying Aster’s OI multiple → Implied FDV ≈ $3.4B
Across OI-based comparisons as well, Lighter consistently appears undervalued.
4. On-chain Holder Behavior (Airdrop Analysis)
Based on Qwantify on-chain data, an analysis of the top 50 $LIT airdrop recipients indicates that sell-side pressure from whale holders is currently limited.
Summary of Top 50 Airdrop Holders
- Partial sellers: 13
- Full sellers: 6
- Total sellers: 19 (38%)
- Continue to holder: 31 (62%)
Notably, 4 out of the 31 holders who maintained their positions actually increased their holdings through additional purchases.
Given that airdrop allocations typically represent the period of highest short-term profit-taking, this behavior suggests that whales and early core users may perceive the current $LIT price as undervalued, based on observable on-chain actions.
5. Buyback & Value Accrual Structure
Like Hyperliquid and Aster, Lighter has officially announced an active buyback program and has clearly stated that all value generated from its products and services accrues entirely to $LIT holders.
Lighter began transparently sharing the situation where the buyback was taking place, disclosing his Treasury account.
We can see in Treasure Wallet that 1.1M $LIT are currently buyback.
The $2.3M buyback took place in two weeks after launch, and the buyback will continue going forward.
This structure ensures that:
- Trading activity growth
- Service expansion
- Revenue generation
are directly translated into token value.
Over time, this positions $LIT as a structurally value-accruing asset, rather than a purely speculative token.
6. U.S. Regulatory Edge & Expansion into Equities
(1) Rarity as a U.S.-Based Crypto Company
Excluding XRP, $LIT is one of the very few major crypto assets operated by a U.S.-based company.
- XRP Market Cap: ~$128.82B
- LIT Market Cap: ~$0.558B
This represents a valuation gap of over 230x, highlighting the potential for structural re-rating in a U.S. regulatory-friendly environment.
Lighter has received strategic investment from U.S.-based institutions, including Robinhood and Founders Fund.
$LIT was listed on Coinbase, a U.S.-based exchange, shortly after launch.
Strategic backing from firms including Robinhood and Founders Fund, together with an early spot listing on Coinbase, enhances Lighter’s credibility within the U.S. market and may support broader institutional engagement over time.
(2) Expansion from Crypto to Stock Markets
Lighter has recently introduced 24-hour weekday trading for U.S. equities, with plans to expand to 24/7 trading in the future.
This signals Lighter’s ambition to evolve beyond a Perp DEX into a next-generation on-chain trading infrastructure that bridges crypto and traditional equity markets.
7. Tokenomics & Supply Risk
- Ecosystem: 50%
- Team & Investors: 50%
- TGE Circulating Supply: 25%
- Team & Investor Allocation: 1-year lockup followed by 3-year linear vesting
As team and investor tokens remain locked for one year, there is no near-term downside pressure from insider selling.
8. Near-Term Catalysts & Product Momentum
Lighter has officially launched its mobile application, marking an important step toward broader user adoption and accessibility.
To celebrate the launch, Lighter announced a mobile-only trading competition with a total prize pool of 100,000 $LIT
The mobile app launch is particularly meaningful as it expands Lighter’s reach beyond desktop-native traders, enabling more frequent and frictionless participation from retail and active users. Increased mobile accessibility has historically been a key driver of trading volume and user retention across both crypto and traditional trading platforms.
In addition, Lighter’s founder, Vladimir, publicly stated:
“This is the first of a few exciting announcements this week.”
This comment suggests that the mobile launch and trading competition may represent only the initial phase of a broader rollout of upcoming updates or partnerships.
As a result, Lighter enters this period with strong short-term momentum, supported by active product releases, incentive-driven user acquisition, and the potential for additional announcements in the near term.
9. Conclusion
Across all core metrics—Volume, Revenue, and Open Interest—
Lighter is trading at a discount relative to Hyperliquid and Aster.
This valuation gap has widened further following the recent price correction, which brought Lighter’s fully diluted valuation down to approximately $2.07B, while its underlying fundamentals remain largely unchanged.
When combined with:
- On-chain behavior of top airdrop holders
- A full value-accrual and buyback structure
- U.S.-based operational advantages and stock market expansion
- near-term $LIT momentum, highlighted by the recent mobile app launch and incentive-driven trading campaigns,
we believe Lighter is currently priced at an overly conservative valuation.
Under conservative assumptions, a fair FDV for $LIT is estimated to be in the $3.5B–$4.0B range, representing meaningful upside from current levels. Under a neutral growth scenario—assuming stable trading volume and gradual expansion in user adoption—an FDV of $5B or higher remains achievable.
- This report reflects the independent analysis of ReboundX and is intended solely for informational purposes. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any asset.*
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